Control of PA House at stake in election

by Damon Boughamer
Public Radio Capitol News, serving Pennsylvania

Harrisburg, Penna. (PRCN, 16 October 2006) – Three weeks and a day from the election, many observers believe the state House could change hands as a result of the 2006 vote.

Political scientist Terry Madonna at Franklin and Marshall College thinks Democrats can regain control of the state House for the first time since 1994. “I still don’t think it’s an even bet that they will, but it’s certainly a 40-percent chance,” he says.

Madonna says the key is suburban Philadelphia, where Republicans enjoy a registration advantage but where Democratic candidates have done well recently.

In fact, a Public Radio Capitol News analysis finds 11 southeastern Pennsylvania seats – 15 if one counts Berks and Lehigh counties – among 22 vulnerable Republican seats.

Those 22 GOP seats in play compare to 8 vulnerable Democratic seats.

Of the 30 total seats in play, 11 appear to be pure toss-ups, where neither candidate can be described as favored.

Democrats must experience a net gain of 8 seats in order to win the speaker’s gavel.

Our detailed analysis follows.


CONTROL OF THE PENNSYLVANIA HOUSE, 2006
Analysis by Public Radio Capitol News

Currently: 93+1 (vacant seat) = 94 Democrats 109 Republicans
Needed for majority: 102 seats

"Unopposed" in this analysis means not opposed by a major party candidate

Unopposed D: 36
Solid D: 28
Likely D: 23 (1 held by GOP)
Total Democratic Base Seats: 87

Leans D: 4 (1 held by GOP)
Toss-Up: 11 (5 held by Democrats, 6 held by Republicans)
Leans R: 15
Total Seats In Play: 30

Likely R: 34
Solid R: 17
Unopposed R: 35
Total Republican Base Seats: 86

The Likely D seat currently held by a Republican belongs to Michael Diven (House 22).

Assuming the Democrats win that seat, there are 4 + 11 + 15 = 30 seats in play.

The Democrats hold 8 of these and the Republicans hold 22.

If the Democrats retain all of their “safe” seats, pick up House 22 as expected and defend all 8 of their vulnerable seats, they would have 86 + 1 + 8 = 95 seats and would need to win 7 of the remaining 22 seats “in play” to gain control of the House. We list 1 of these as Leans D, 6 as Toss-Up and 15 as Leans R. The Democrats would, for example, need to win the 1 Leans D and all 6 remaining Toss-Up seats to secure the House.


Likely D seat held by a Republican

House 22
Michael Diven's seat; Pittsburgh's West End. Diven, the incumbent Republican, earned his ballot position in a write-in campaign after his re-election petitions were revealed to have included the names of dead voters. This mistake overshadowed Diven's other recent difficulty: losing to Wayne Fontana in a special Senate election after switching parties and joining the GOP in a Democratic district. Democrat Chelsa Wagner should win.


Vulnerable R seats (seats R's must protect)

The following are listed from most likely to flip to least likely to flip.

House 170: Leans D
George Kenney's seat; Montgomery County and Philadelphia. Kenney, the incumbent Republican, is in a world of trouble. This district carries a Democratic registration edge. And Democrat Brendan Boyle is working as hard as any candidate in the state; he had knocked on more than 18,000 doors by early September. He's on pace to hit every door in the district, some more than once.

House 131: Toss-Up
Karen Beyer's seat; Lehigh County. The Republican Beyer narrowly won a special election over long-time township official and Democrat Linda Minger. This is a rematch. Since voters just got to know these candidates, this race could be a good way to gauge the relative strength of Democratic momentum at the national and state levels.

House 130: Toss-Up
Dennis Leh's seat; Berks County. Like the 128th (see below), the 130th is changing a little -- becoming more suburban -- and, bordering Montgomery County, is subject to some influence from the Philadelphia political universe. The Republican incumbent Leh narrowly lost his primary to Billy Reed. Democrat Dave Kessler has been a township supervisor for more than a decade. A vulnerable Republican seat.

House 142: Toss-Up
Matthew Wright's seat; Bucks County. Part of the cluster of districts northeast of downtown Philadelphia that could see Republican-to-Democrat turnover. Democratic challenger Chris King is a budget and policy analyst. Wright, the GOP incumbent, has represented the area since 1990 and his father held the seat before that. The county paper is treating this as a toss-up, which is a bad sign for Wright.

House 134: Toss-Up
Doug Reichley's seat; Lehigh and Berks counties. This suburban Allentown seat is vulnerable for Republicans in the same way as many suburban Philadelphia seats are. Reichley, the GOP incumbent, is running for a third term. Democrat Chris Casey might benefit from his coincidental surname. Reichley was not opposed by a Democrat in 2004, so it's hard to use those numbers to gauge his strength; registration appears to be equalizing here. Perhaps of interest: Reichley voted for the pay raise, although it was less of an issue in the Lehigh Valley.

House 161: Toss-Up
Tom Gannon's seat; Delaware County. Gannon, the incumbent Republican, took fire from several media sources in connection with a particularly negative ad attacking Democrat Bryan Lentz. Lentz, a former Army paratrooper, had already been enjoying a little momentum. And Gannon voted for the pay raise. Registration is decidedly GOP here, but this is the kind of district that flipped in 2004.

House 176: Toss-Up
Mario Scavello's seat; Monroe County. Scavello, the incumbent Republican, has been very engaged in the property tax debate since his arrival in Harrisburg, but Democrat Bernard Kennedy -- a former Stroudsburg councilman -- says Scavello has not fulfilled promises. Registration is increasingly Democratic here, and this part of northeast Pennsylvania is expected to support Democratic congressional candidate Chris Carney.

House 77: Toss-Up
Lynn Herman's seat; Centre County. Herman, a Republican, is retiring. The bigger name in this race is the Democrat's; he is two-term commissioner Scott Conklin. Conklin is seen favorably in Harrisburg and seems to have attracted all of the token rural support from the House caucus. The Republican, Barbara Spencer, had to make it through a tough four-way primary and spent most of the money Herman had given her. She's dealing with an internal party split created by Herman's support of the pay raise. The Dems all but need this one to take back the House.

House 151: Leans R Hold
Eugene McGill's seat; Montgomery County. McGill is the Republican incumbent and -- although it seemed to matter less initially in greater Philadelphia -- he voted for the pay raise. Democrat Rick Taylor has picked up some late momentum after the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that McGill had once asked a court for leniency for a friend who assaulted a 14-year-old girl. Taylor said that by late September, he had knocked on more than 10,000 doors.

House 128: Leans R Hold
Sam Rohrer's seat; Berks County. Democrats would likely be ecstatic over even the prospect of being able to unseat one of the most conservative and intellectually consistent members of the General Assembly (Rohrer is the incumbent Republican). For that reason, this race could see disproportionate resources. The registration advantage Rohrer has actually isn't insurmountable -- this district is more suburban now than ever -- and Democrat Russ Hummell seems to be running a professional campaign.

House 177: Leans R Hold
John Taylor's seat; Philadelphia. This district features a wide registration edge for challenger Harry Enggasser, a city ward leader. The outcome of this race will probably be affected by national and state trends as well as block-by-block Philly politics. A Republican probably should not have been able to hold this seat for as long as Taylor has (since 1984), so the Democrats want this one.

House 18: Leans R Hold
Gene DiGirolamo's seat; Bensalem/Bucks County. DiGirolamo, the incumbent Republican, has been in office for more than a decade. The Democrat, Harris Martin, is actually a local party chair, but there are a lot of suburban Philadelphia seats in play, and the open-seat races may be more attractive targets. Still, this seat is in the right physical location for growing anti-GOP sentiment.

House 91: Leans R Hold
Steve Maitland's seat; Adams County. Maitland lost his primary to Republican Dan Moul. The Democrat in the race is Pat Naugle, an economics professor. This race is all about local dynamics. Maitland lost because he voted for the pay raise, but Moul has been under fire for supporting a Gettysburg casino. Adams County probably shouldn't send a Democrat to Harrisburg, but then, local conditions have allowed for two Democrat county commissioners, and that doesn't make sense either.

House 152: Leans R Hold
Sue Cornell's seat; Upper Moreland/Montgomery County. Cornell lost the Republican primary to Tom Murt, who now faces Democrat Michael Paston. Murt inherits a substantial registration edge and momentum. Paston is running a professional campaign, but this is not the most vulnerable GOP seat in Montgomery County.

House 17: Leans R Hold
Rod Wilt's seat; rural Mercer and Crawford counties. Wilt announced his retirement after the primary, so Republican fill-in Michele Brooks got a late start. But she's a county commissioner and Democrat Frank Weaver is a newcomer. Hard to imagine the Dems can support financially a run at this isolated western PA seat in the Youngstown market.

House 156: Leans R Hold
E.Z. Taylor's seat; West Chester/Chester County. Taylor, the incumbent Republican, is retiring. Democrat Barbara McIlvaine Smith and Republican Shannon Royer square off. The district features a GOP registration edge, but with West Chester University, there's a lot of energy for political change. Mr. Royer, a former Perzel staffer and one of Taylor's past campaign managers, should win but may not.

House 117: Leans R Hold
George Hasay's seat; Luzerne and Wyoming counties. This seat would ordinarily be far from competitive, but embattled Congressman Don Sherwood's slumping campaign is making things harder than expected for Republicans, and the GOP newcomer in this race, Karen Boback, teaches in Sherwood's hometown of Tunkhannock. Democrat Fred Nichols would be pulling off an upset and would need very long Chris Carney/Democratic congressional coattails to do it.

House 143: Leans R Hold
Charles McIlhinny's seat; upper Bucks County. McIlhinny, a Republican, is running for Joe Conti's Senate seat. That leaves Republican real estate agent Marguerite Quinn facing Democrat Larry Glick, a law enforcement officer. Glick is dealing with revelations he declared bankruptcy and is having to explain why an 11-year employer dismissed him.

House 124: Leans R Hold
Dave Argall's seat; Schuylkill and Berks counties. This race is a sort of inverse of the 123rd (see below). Bill Mackey is the Democratic challenger. Argall, the incumbent Republican, voted for the pay raise. But this district is a little more Republican, in terms of registration, than the 123rd. But there's a Casey-for-Senate coattail factor. An upset here would come as a surprise to insiders, but Schuylkill County voters have been known to do their own thing.

House 62: Leans R Hold
Dave Reed's seat; Indiana County. Reed, the incumbent Republican, is a young guy viewed quite favorably in Harrisburg circles. Sometimes that matters to the district, sometimes it doesn't. The Democratic opponent is Cynthia Spielman, who's on the faculty at IUP, and IUP students would have to vote in large numbers for an upset. Also, this race is getting next to no press. This district could be won by the right conservative Democrat, but that may not be Spielman.

House 109: Leans R Hold
David Millard's seat; Columbia County. In a "Democratic landslide" scenario, this is a seat that could go, but it probably won't happen. Millard is a freshman Republican. His challenger is 27-year-old David Slavick, who's using the internet to his advantage but is an outspoken progressive. Columbia County used to vote for Democrats, though, and if Slavick can attract some BU student support -- stranger things have happened. Millard was worried enough to avoid debating.

House 172: Leans R Hold
Speaker John Perzel's seat; Northeast Philadelphia. A victory by Democrat Tim Kearney over the Republican speaker is unlikely for a variety of reasons. It's the very last race to mention among potential Democratic takeovers. If November 7 has folks working this far down the list, it will have been a total victory for the current minority party.


Vulnerable D seats (seats D's must protect)

The following are listed from most likely to flip to least likely to flip.

House 33: Toss-Up
Frank Dermody's seat; Allegheny County. If Dermody, the incumbent Democrat, loses, it will be because he supported the pay raise. Republican Eileen Watt has been hitting this point heavily. She's not unknown; Watt was on Allegheny County Council for a while (having won from a Democratic district) and was the county GOP's political director. Also, she's raised a lot of money. Dermody should be nervous.

House 30: Toss-Up
Shawn Flaherty's seat; Pittsburgh's northern suburbs. Flaherty, a Democrat, just won this seat a few months ago in a special election. This is close to a 50-50 district. The Republican, Randy Vulakovich, out-muscled two GOP primary opponents and said in mid-October that he had already knocked on more than 15,000 doors. Big regional political name versus extremely hard worker. Could be the closest race in the state.

House 46: Toss-Up
Vic Lescovitz' seat; Washington County. Lescovitz, a Democrat, is retiring. The Republican in this race, Paul Snatchko, came within five points of him in 2004. But the new Democratic contender, Jesse White, came within 11 points of Lescovitz himself in the '04 primary. This district has been turning Republican. The 2006 wildcards are national anti-GOP sentiment (playing into the Santorum-Casey U.S. Senate race) and general western PA pay raise discontent. The question will be whether both, one or neither factor affects this race.

House 189: Toss-Up
John Siptroth's seat; Monroe County. Siptroth, a Democrat, won a special election for this seat and hasn't had much time to establish himself. He has a strong challenger: Republican county commissioner Donna Asure. This area is trending Democratic; the Sherwood-Casey congressional race may also play into voters' outlooks.

House 149: Toss-Up
Daylin Leach's seat; Upper Marion/Montgomery County. This outcome of this race may have little to do with trends. Leach, the incumbent Democrat, caught heat for a blog he maintained; some considered its content inappropriate. Republican Monica Treichel would stand to take advantage. The district is close to 50-50 in terms of registration.

House 10: Leans D Hold
Frank LaGrotta's seat; Ellwood City/Lawrence County. LaGrotta, the incumbent Democrat, was once popular but was a pay raise casualty. Jaret Gibbons defeated him in the primary, but Gibbons is only 25 and just graduated from law school. He faces Republican Chuck Morse, who was unopposed in the primary. This race may depend on support Gibbons gets from LaGrotta -- they live in the same town and attend the same church.

House 25: Leans D Hold
Joe Markosek's seat; Monroeville/Allegheny County. If moderates want to express pay raise outrage, this would be as good a place as any to do it. Markosek survived a primary, but only because 47% was good enough in a three-way race. The Republican, Ed Nicholson, is in his second run. This would be Markosek's 13th victory.

House 123: Leans D Hold
Neal Goodman's seat; Schuylkill County. This race has a lot of components. Goodman, the incumbent Democrat, voted for the pay raise. But this part of the state may see a turnout bump and extra Democratic voting because of Bob Casey's Senate run. But then there's the issue of illegal immigration; now nationally known Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta came down to campaign for the Republican in this race, Mike Cadau. Schuylkill County often marches to its own beat. This race could reflect that, either way.